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Блог Михаила Прохорова
Как сохранить сбережения, преумножить накопления. 
5th-Feb-2008 01:11 pm
После моего краткого выступления на тему «у мирового кризиса не видно дна» меня теперь стали спрашивать: раз такой умный :-), посоветуй, как вести себя на бытовом уровне, чтобы от возможного кризиса подстраховаться. Я так понимаю, что главным образом вопрос о том, как хранить сбережения.
Сразу скажу, что очень трудно давать советы на эту тему. Сегодня могу только поделиться своим опытом. Мой подход – все сбережения должны быть в деле и постоянно работать, пока я активный бизнесмен. Если же речь идет о небольших суммах, то я, скорее, не очень хороший советчик, т.к. давно работаю на макро уровне. Но попробовать могу :-): все зависит от Вашей цели – сохранить или приумножить? Если сохранить, то храните в той валюте, в которой тратите деньги и в виде банковского вклада или вложений в  высоколиквидные государственные облигации и бумаги крупных эмитентов. Если хотите приумножить свои накопления, то надо помнить, что это риск и гарантировать вам прибыль никто не будет. Если все же решились и не особенно интересуетесь экономикой и финансовым рынком, то мой совет - отдайте деньги в управление профессиональным компаниям.
P.S.  Комментарии все читаю. Спасибо. На все вопросы, которые вы задаете, ответить просто не успеваю. Как обещал, готовлю продолжение «мастер-класса» и жду предложения от вас новых тем.
5th-Feb-2008 02:47 pm (UTC) - и мне тоже слитки нравятся
Даже бегала в Сбербанк перед Новым годом, купила на подарки слитки по 1 г по 914 рублей, продать могла бы рублей за 600, если не ошибаюсь((

Но что может быть лучше золота в такое время. Спасибо, что пока не запретили продажу слитков. Может, кого-то спасет.))
5th-Feb-2008 03:04 pm (UTC) - Re: и мне тоже слитки нравятся
а если быть не просто блондинкой, а умной блондинкой, то на граммульковое золото не нужно :) пока есть смысл килограммовые брать или больше (= потом распилим.. стружку и пыль сдадим отдельно :)
6th-Feb-2008 12:07 am (UTC) - Re: и мне тоже слитки нравятся
It was pointed out recently that if the US reverted back to a gold backed currency, then with the vast quantity of paper money (dollars) currently printed and in circulation it would take $52,000 USD to purchase one ounce of gold. The main factors driving gold prices higher have been the record high oil price, along with the huge rises in commodities. Recall 1970?-I’ve only read about it. The last gold prices record was in 1980 and it was similar to the current level.
The turmoil in the US credit markets has also been bullish for gold prices. Since it's widely expected that this will result in even lower interest rates to help boost the economy, it'll mean an ongoing U.S. dollar decline for a while and since gold and the dollar move in opposite directions, the declining dollar has been a big plus for gold. Gold has also risen due to its safe haven status in reaction to growing international uncertainty and tensions, especially in the Middle East.
Chinese demand is growing and in recent years we've seen what's happened to many markets when Chinese demand intensifies... they soar…I hear that China opened up gold futures trading and the exchange is prepared for big demand- with the Chinese stock market softening, it is expected that China's wealthiest investors will pour into the gold market, driving the price much higher.
The point is – yes, gold has been a very profitable investment for years. … yet, consider the inflation and devaluation of the US $...- it won’t be allowed to go astray. Every time the governmental/Presidential election changes the party in majority (which will happen, since everyone is tired of the aggression of the Republicans!), the economy shifts gears…plus you want to buy when it is cheap, which it currently is not or shift resources to more profitable investment vehicle. Consider the beginning statement about the inflation in the following context – Ben Bernanke and the rest of his team remember well the 1970 and early 1980 and won’t allow this to happen again! :) Make your own judgments as to whose economy will suffer greatly. Should I spell the word PROTECTIONISM …watch the news in regards to Eastern Asia closely… and don’t put everything in one basket, just in case, because Uncle Sam is not prepared to lay with the roses for now. :)
Good luck to all of us because it would be rather scary!
6th-Feb-2008 08:12 am (UTC) - Re: и мне тоже слитки нравятся
Regarding consequences in market of the international political tensions –like Middle East -, there should be considered also Tehran stock exchange quotations using European currency, instead of USD.
About “Chinese effect” – all agree.
So, let’s trust future! :)
P.S. We really don’t count on Uncle Sam, still he needs to get up himself :)
7th-Feb-2008 12:07 am (UTC) - Re: и мне тоже слитки нравятся
Indeed Uncle Sam will starve and get seizures for quite a while, but at the end somebody else will share his misfortunes and the bill. I would put the geopolitical factor and the devaluation of the US $ and its relation to the exports and euro in the equation too.
I will not say anything more then give you a hint from the times of the Big Depression and WWII - I will step far back and go to 1936 and Keynes's statement that at times of crisis of the sort the government spending needs to compensate for the insufficient business investment. At this time the governemt did not spend enough and what factually ended the Depression had been the entry of USA in World War II and the new orders for armaments and other war necessities. When the Government spending reached the level recommended by Keynes, US' economy was pulled out of the depression.
Place the above ref words in the following context - make an analyze of the US federal budgets for the period 2000-2006 and place specific interest on 2000 and 2001 and notice which departments had their budgets increased ? The rest of the info you have seen in the news (not only the financial news, but in general) - just put the puzzle together.
Mr. Prokhorov is a very smart man and runs before everyone. He knows that the development of the alternative energy resourses will be the key in the future survival in general. Bravo to him!
I would recommend a nice booklet called: "The Coming economic Collapse. How you can thrive when oil costs $200/barrel." by Dr.Stephen Leeb. He predicted that by Dec 2007 the price of oil will reach $ 100 and did not fail.
I will stop with the gloom and doom an will wish everyone in general best of luck. After all we are in the same boat- the Earth is only one.
Have a great evening !
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