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Блог Михаила Прохорова
Когда подорожают деньги? 
18th-Nov-2008 12:13 pm
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Здравствуйте,

Пару недель назад я изложил свою точку зрения на происходящие экономические процессы и попросил вас высказывать свое мнение по поводу перспективного соотношения стоимости активов и денег. Читал с интересом. Сегодня, как и обещал, даю мою позицию по этому вопросу. Вот она:

Не могу, конечно, сказать, что уверен на 100%, требуется еще время на анализ общей ситуации. Тем не менее, определенная логика ответа у меня уже есть. Для того, чтобы попытаться понять, что будет с деньгами по отношению к активам, необходимо иметь ввиду следующие факторы (убывание по мере снижения важности):

1. скорость обращения денег в мире;
2. склонность населения к тезаврации и переход на оплату наличными из-за недоверия к банковским расчетам;
3. новая система оценки стоимости (ценности) активов;
4. достижение уровня "дна" (размер заплаченной цены за это "дно") и динамика роста/снижения ВВП;
5. жесткость регулирования обращения инструментов виртуального мира.

Мой предварительный вывод заключается в том, что выделенные огромные средства уйдут в первую очередь на «зализывание» ран от понесенных убытков всей экономикой, что уже приводит к психологическому желанию «замедлить» скорость обращения денег и их производных, сделать их движение более видимым и контролируемым. В этом случае я не вижу больших проблем с регулированием уровня инфляции. Как только «новая» система оценки стоимости активов по отношению к деньгам достигнет «точки равновесия» (или точки достижения "дна"), начнется эпоха «дорогих» денег, относительное доминирование «реальной» экономики.

Еще раз хочу подчеркнуть, что это очень предварительный вывод, на который могут повлиять действия (бездействие) мировых властей в период удач или неудач по преодолению мировой эпидемии недоверия в глобальном мире. Нельзя исключать и обратного сценария.
Если что-то будет критично изменяться, то будем обмениваться мнениями и анализировать.

Всем удачи.
Comments 
20th-Nov-2008 04:09 am (UTC) - $$$ :)
Mikhail Dmitrievich,

In regards - "Мой предварительный вывод заключается в том, что выделенные огромные средства уйдут в первую очередь на «зализывание» ран от понесенных убытков всей экономикой " - and my opinion is that the comparison is as if you provide massive blood transfusion to a patient, who suffers vast internal hemorrhaging.
I would say that the true crisis is the pending collapse of the dollar fiat system. Probably this will be the moment when our US government will finally realize the necessity to put its house-of-cards in fiscal order and relinquish its imperialistic ambitions hopefully for the sake of re-establishing some steady grounds and regulations within the state, which has become a village without dogs. It is such a pity to see how the brightest individuals in the nation have become nothing more then opportunistic crooks... but, hey, why wouldn't they try to sneak through if the government has deliberately left loopholes in the laws? It is all fair game, provided you've paved your way out..., which they have as we all see - Hank Paulson had a blank check and is completely unrestricted in his decisions. :)

... if not... the bottom is yet to be reached. Probably, the word "poverty" will achieve a new meaning.

Regards,
Paloma

P.S.: You are not even faking a hint of a smile. Cheer up ! You suggested the ruble as the new reserve currency, right ? Were you not heard ?
22nd-Nov-2008 03:25 am (UTC) - Re: ____oo00_d(°.l.°)b_00oo_____
Anonymous
Hi palomabrava,

how do you think can a government improve if all its ministers and Members of Parliament and counsellors are those who created and profit from the current system?
I don't think Obama will be able to change that much: how is he supposed to weed out all the human resources of the governmental structures? The lobbyists and other creatures have a tight grip and it won't be easy to break that. Many US citizens had fiercely objected the bail out plan but finally the bail out plan has been passed nevertheless.
Furthermore I wonder whether there can be a change as long as there is no critical approach towards the current ideology of making money at any cost. I do not only think of the US foreign politics but also of the very predatory kind of free market economies like in the US. About 80 pension investment groups went bancrupt and who is to care for the pensioners? You can't let them down I suppose. (?)

There is no discussion about regulations nor about new approaches and that is what worries me.


Regards,

a cynic.

22nd-Nov-2008 09:24 pm (UTC) - Re: ____oo00_d(°.l.°)b_00oo_____ - 1
Dear Anonymous C,
You have raised valid issues – all of them have been a point of concern to me as well. Obama comes at times of utmost difficulties and carries the idea of a change, but changes do not happen overnight and it would take months before we even notice them and years to recover the losses. Whereas I like him and his ideas, I am never blind in regards to what comes together with the good part of the package and never forget that ultimately all politicians regardless of which party they represent probably go to the same ‘doctor’ should their problem deepens. The “doctor” is never visible and lacks altruistm in his nature by definition – he/she might switch ideologies, but they always serve certain goals - his mostly and as a by-product they calm down the society when needed by giving away a slice of pork chop here and there. Yet, let’s not forget that the people of substance are not all that many and every individual is a combination of both positives and negatives. You can’t have it all – there will be disapointment on some fields inevitably. I also noticed that BO encircles himself with Clinton aides – which whereas not bad, gives away inclination. Al Gore has paved such a nice road with his green projects… yeah, the alternative energy lobby will flourish, but that is not bad – if it indeed leads towards decrease of costs on the long run and till then we’ll have to deal with the issues as they hit... or nearly miss us. :)
If I had to mention a couple of words on the whole bailout blunder then I need to say that when Hank Paulson presented his case couple of months ago and the result was that “the air was sucked out of the room” in view of the consequences should the package was not accepted, the politicians presented probably were more scared then realized that he was giving the final “derivative” sale package, a package so useless in general at this state of the economy that its sanity was questioned by Ron Paul (a former presidential candidate with very accurate economics prognostical skills). It amazed me that the Congress placed virtually no restrictions or accountability as to how he was to spread the funds and he spends them on his friendship circle – AIG actually threw a lavish party after the n-th billion received and the Execs said that they could not cancel it at the last moment… :):):) Nobody really knows if he had spend only half of the money and if he won’t spend them all before year end… and what is accomplished ? – Nothing. What is left after that?- The dollar will be going downhill and I have the feeling that the world will be stuck paying our bill. Just sit back and watch !

--- to be continued ---
22nd-Nov-2008 09:26 pm (UTC) - Re: ____oo00_d(°.l.°)b_00oo_____ - 2
- Continue from - 1-
Have you heard of the Committee of Energy and Commerce ? – Some of the most important problems that US encounters like energy and health care are under the jurisdiction of the Commerce Committee. Altogether, the success of the BO’s administration will depend on how the Commerce Committee performs. Although the elections are over, the transitions period is a battleground and the current camp Washington resembles the tasty apple, which has a multitude of hungry worms in it. It should become obvious that once the apple is eaten from within then the big, fat worms will die as well, right? In reality – I would think that even saturation should have its limits. One can not live undisturbed lavish life, when you see the paupers’ forks reaching his table. One should never understate the crowd. Change is needed in order to prevent the human tsunami – people here are very patient, but are currently left without too many choices. Actually – none and Uncle Sam sees that well.
One positive change which I noticed is that the Chairman of the Committee on Energy and Commerce – Michigan Congressman John Dingell had been relieved of his duties and replaced by a liberal politician with correspoinding to the new admin ideas. Dingell was a person who for the last 30 years has represented the interests of the Detroit automotive industry and stopped legislations related to clean energy, efficiency etc. As you’ve heard the 3 CEOs were turned down bailout on their terms – now everyone needs to know what’s their plan. The direct message given is – time has come for a change and accountability. Don’t expect money handouts for nothing in exchange – you’ve been inefficient looser so far, let’s see how you would use the funds if granted, cause if you will fail based on your choices again – how many times should we pay your bills while you play on business? As you will notice in the link below – The Government Accountability Office will be involved as well… Now, do I have to tell you what it is to have an auditor on your neck ? :) Of course – auditors are for sale as well, but then again – the law gives some 25 years of jail for non-conformance and professional malpractice. Good incentive to adhere somehow closer to professional ethics and not to try to translate the Gospel using the devil’s dictionary. :)
http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/nov2008/2008-11-21-02.asp
--- to be continued -
22nd-Nov-2008 09:28 pm (UTC) - Re: ____oo00_d(°.l.°)b_00oo_____ - 3
-- continue from -2 -

The main point is: America has to learn and re-discover efficiency again – and it should start with everyone’s daily activities. Sofar the idea of repair has been – if a small part breaks down you don’t have to change the part – you change the whole module where the part lies. :) Or – you go to the hospital for CT scan and when you see the bill approx $ 5000 you really prefer to not have done it. Another example – public transportation is almost non-existent in America. In the big cities like NY and Chicago you have the tube, the L and the trains as a connection to the suburns, you see busses in the main city metro areas, but not so much in between. If you don’t have a car – you are bound to stay home. I checked the books of village of Plainfield, IL where I reside. Sure thing – I saw good news that the village has purchased land (for astronomical $ amount) for the needed building for the new Metra rail station. I thought - Cool ! Then it would take me 30 min on express train to get to work to Downtown Chicago next year. Tough luck ! I called the city hall and checked on its status – the manager there succumbed from laughter and said that it is sort of hard to obtain a concession for usage of the rail from the rail companies, which own the tracks and are unwilling to use them for commuter purposes. Legislature is silent at this point and it has taken 30 years of discussion so far. The guy mentioned that it would probably take another 10 years before it materializes. I suppose as an alternative I could fly to the destination every morning, but Major Daley was so arrogant that he ripped Meigs Field some time ago – so, there is no landing pad. :)
The idea is: All those inefficient, clumsy and fund sucking industries should be restructured – automotive, pharmaceuticals, insurance , transportation etc, but before all this can happen … legislature should be changed and the first thing one should break is the lobbyists outreach and it has started already as I mentioned on the Dingell case. Obama said – why should the american citizen pay for an antibiotic which costs hundreds of dollars when we can change legislations and purchase for 20% fo this price from overseas? That would force the pharmaceuticals to become more cost efficient or…there won’t be bailout. On globalization – once a corporation decides to move its productive facilities to other country – oh, well, tax credits and incentives are lost. Fair deal for depriving the middle class in your own country from employment opportunities. There should not be a double dipping.
I realize that politicians are the same everywhere – they know what the people need and sing the song before the elections, then – vast amnesia breaks down the good intentions and the already known pattern settles in… but the moment is critical and the whole world is on the same boat. I only hope that common sense will relatively prevail and that the average american will receive more affordable healthcare and reciprocal value for his/her money spent.

Regards,
Paloma – a former cynic, currently self- placed on a strict recovery plan, but with a tendency to develop bitter seizures on occasion

PS.: Regards the retired individuals and ones reaching retirement – the drama has settled into their lives since their 401Ks have shrunk 75% already and here nobody takes care of older relatives. It is not simply part of the culture. Sad. Do you believe in miracles ? … We are having the first black president living in the White House, which had been built with black slaves’ labor. Times change and the possibilities lie in our desire to change.

24th-Nov-2008 05:43 pm (UTC) - Re: it's all corruption, I tell you...
Hello there Paloma,
I wouldn't be so quick to completely put the cynicism on the shelf. First, you talk about the state of public transportation due to wasted funds in Chicago and I agree with what you said, but I have to ask you: what party do you think the people (responsible for putting Chicago in this state)are affiliated with? Yes, Democrats. And who did we the people of the US vote for-where's he from and what party? What you spoke of is only a few of many examples of a socialistic govt (albeit a local one) at work-the ruling officials burden the citizens with high taxes and ridiculous laws,(while giving themselves as well as their lobbyists a free ride through any existing loopholes of the laws) which over a period of years, slowly strips away the rights (and $) of the people. And the result? A big group of have-nots, while the ruling officials continue to hold all the keys until they can pass them off to others of their kind. And how do they manage to pull the corruption off? By using their "money-sucking" social programs, welfare systems and charities under the pretense of taking from the few honest people who happen to have money so that the poorest of the poor can benefit. Well all fine and dandy, provided that the poor (those who can barely feed their families much less keep a roof over their heads) can have access into these programs. But I guess you have to be on your deathbed to enter most of these programs because the fore-mentioned folks of my last sentence can't even have access to these programs because they're considered "too rich"! Yes, this sounds shocking and even unbelievable, but it's actually a very common occurrence in more US cities than we can count. I agree with you that these "money-sucking" programs should either be restructured or done away with but history tells us that Dems are never quick to do this and if anything, more of the inefficient programs spring up from a given one that does miraculously change-we can all hope that Obama will be different (and I really do for all our sakes) but nevertheless I'm keeping my cynicism until I see it. to be continued..


Edited at 2008-11-24 07:25 pm (UTC)
(Deleted comment)
30th-Nov-2008 07:03 am (UTC) - Re: it's all greed of ... ?
Hello Dear Socialistic Anonymous,
I really have to give you the award for having the most courage of anyone on the blog. Seriously, you are one brave SOB for approaching me again after I told you to leave me alone. I meant what I had said. On the other hand, I have to commend you for taking the time to look up HUD figures for my city of Columbus, OH. I figured you must really want to spill to me what's on your mind concerning my comment and then hear my thoughts again. So, to quote a very old religious figure: " ' ask, and you shall receive.' " The question is whether or not you will like what you're about to "receive"-consider yourself warned because I don't want to hear any crying/complaining from you about being offended due to what I tell you.
First, nicely done once again with the HUD figures. But the issues I had with them were these: the first one coming from the HUD explanation itself-the part that says: " 'Income limits vary from area to area so you may be eligible at one HA but not at another.' " WHY should they vary from one area to another??? After all, the determination of someone in the wealthy class vs. upper middle vs. lower middle vs. poverty are determined and calculated on a national scale. For example, someone who makes the $36,600/yr is considered to be in the lower middle class, just a couple K's above the poor (you might as well say "poverty") class on the national scale!! However, let's say that the person making this mentioned yearly income (who's living in Columbus, Ohio) loses her job and ends up finding one in Boston of all places! She really doesn't want to live in Boston because she knows that a $36,600 annual income will put her in the poverty class. Why? Well this leads me to my second point, which is that in Columbus she was paying about $750/month rent for a 2-bedroom apt. for her and her 2 dogs (not counting utilities) but in Boston she'll pay for a ONE-BEDROOM apartment ( rat-holed if she's lucky and not counting utilities) for about $1000/month. And with bringing in about $2000/month that's half her salary-oh my!! Again I ask, why such a discrepancy? Well one possible explanation is that each city has its own lobbyists, special interest groups, pork politicians, real-estate markets controlled by the (guess who?) socialist democrat politicians and those working for their causes-different people with the same "Dem" philosophies who (along with their lobbyists and others of their kind) hold all the keys and stay busy burdening the hard-working, honest citizens (just trying to make a living) with their taxes and laws just like I mentioned in my comment. You don't find many cities in America run by Republicans (the capitalists) because they a) don't want the job or b) aren't liked by the non-business owners (majority of city dwellers) who believe that the govt. should be taking from the hard-working, honest minority who just happen to have money (these people are typically the small business owners). Historically, social programs and high taxes have been the tools of democrats, NOT republicans. So why are U.S. cities so burdened by money-sucking social programs that obviously aren't benefiting those people whom they were supposed to benefit to begin with? One would think that if a social program is ineffective that it should be changed or stopped-well why does it still remain (or even worse, why does some other less-improved version of this program take its place??) Again, thank the democrats because they are the ones responisble for these philosophies/results. to be continued..

Edited at 2008-11-30 07:16 am (UTC)
30th-Nov-2008 07:06 am (UTC) - Re: it's all greed of ... ? part 2
Yeah, it's easy to blame a Republican president for the cities' problems (and yeah, he shared PART but not ALL of the blame) but the majority of the blame should go to the Democratic officials running your city! Yes, I am cynical of both parties, but mostly dems because in a "democratic" society you end up with mostly "have-nots" (sad but true) whereas in a "republic" (or capitalistic) society, you end up as EITHER a "have" or a "have-not"-your choice according to your constitutional rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. But with all due respect for our newly elected president, I am hoping for all our sakes that he carries out what he says he will and that we Americans will end up being mostly "haves" instead of "have-nots" as a result of his "rescue" plans. I've mentioned before on the blog that FDR is the only Democratic president I respect, along with his wife (former fist lady Eleanor). It's a pity that no other Dem nor his wife has followed their examples yet. And I'll keep my cynicism until I see this-especially since it's hard to picture the new first lady as well as the former first lady (now being slapped with the job of our new Secretary of State) volunteering at a soup kitchen or visiting our troops stationed in various parts of the world. And it's especially hard not to be cynical about our new president and our new first lady especially after said new first lady flooded the press (back in the spring) with reports about how her husband burps, farts, and thinks of "pet names" for her and their kids! You tell me, is this a fitting example of a first lady?? I personally think not because there are many family issues which should be kept PRIVATE-especially these! But again I'll do my best to keep an open mind inspite of my cynicism.
Third, my comment was not posted with the thought of how the middle class should be housed by the government because the middle class can still afford to house itself whether in homes or apartments. I was not only answering my friend's thoughts about wasteful spending of city budgets by city officials, but I was also thinking more about the families of the lower middle class and the poverty class-issues like how would they use their $36,600/yr to send their 1-3 kids to college without federal funds? Or, how would a single person making $36,600/yr who wanted to make a career change afford schooling without some kind of federal grant/funding?? I commend you for thin king that $36,600/yr is a lot of money but I must burst your bubble by saying that in reality, it really is not that much money in many places in America-ESPECIALLY if you have children!
I thank my lucky stars that I am neither married nor have kids yet-in fact if I were to write up a family budget right before I married and started a family, I would do it assuming that I would start off having twins instead of just one baby because my chances for having twins are very strong-even then, a budget plan is just a PLAN. And we all know that a great deal of the time the best of "plans" get off-track. Curiously, I think you should write a book as to how you and a family could live on $36,600/yr since you think it's a "lot" of $! But of course, that would require you having to use your real name and we can't have that, can we?? This is it for me right now. Take care of yourself and enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Regards,
Heather





Edited at 2008-11-30 07:21 am (UTC)
24th-Nov-2008 05:44 pm (UTC) - Re: it's all corruption, I tell you...part 2
On the other side of the coin, the Bushes (Jr more than Sr) have been total disasters for not only the Republican cause but also that of capitalism/business in general. Junior added nothing more than corruption to an already out-of control mess of a system (the beginning of the big,greedy corps. in so much trouble now with shrinking #s of small businesses-this all left behind by Clinton; also a disaster for capitalism) with his No Child Left Behind as well as Housing Acts. None of what I like to call the "old" Republicans wanted Junior in the first place because of these acts with which he came into Washington. They wanted McCain. I agree with what you said about globalization/outsourcing, but this paradox will unfortunately continue if it is not regulated in 2 ways simultaneously (and Obama did hit on the first one): a) raise taxes on the businesses that do outsource to other countries and b)control immigration into the home country so that the country's citizens (the middle and lower classes) aren't competing with undocumented (illegal) immigrants for both jobs and affordable health care. The first would force the businesses to hire the citizens and pay them the wages they need to live. Henry Ford believed that a well-paid worker=a more productive,happier one which in turn= higher profits! If only CEOs today had this attitude-everyone would win. But as it is, America keeps flooding the healthcare system with undocumented immigrants-one of the ways that health costs go up. And we're just feeling the effects now-in other words, no one saw what was coming until the crap hit the fan.
What worries me is that Obama once spoke about allowing more immigrants in as well as granting amnesty to those already here illegally. Again I'm going to stay cynical until further notice. But then again, during those days I want to take a break from cynicism (as too much isn't good for one's health) I'll just sit back and try to imagine how Obama will handle the thorn in America's side known as Al-Qaeda, especially with Hillary at his side as Secretary of State. Have you heard what they're saying about him as well as us? Quite despicable if you know what I mean-if only Clinton had gone after Bin Laden when he had the chance instead of just ignoring him. Oh well, woulda coulda shoulda...only time will tell what the future holds but in the meantime,a healthy amount of cynicism will do. Take care,
Heather
P.S. You also mentioned how sad it is that the grown kids in America don't take care of their older relatives-well some do, some don't. I'm one of the few who do. But the reason for the huge number of those who don't lies in the fact that the older parents ignored/mistreated their kids while of course not thinking that they would need their kids when they grew old. Well it's a fact of nature and a good lesson: what goes around comes around-if you ignore your kids while they're growing up, your grown kids will turn around and ignore you. Just something to think about. HMC



Edited at 2008-11-24 07:39 pm (UTC)
30th-Nov-2008 06:22 pm (UTC) - Re: $$$ :)
This message is a reply to the Anonymous, who presented himself as The Cynic, but whose new comment was not posted.

Dear C,
Unfortunately, when I tried to open the links, which you posted I get a message that they are not accessible. Regardless, the info which you gave is sufficient enough for me to understand your point.
I mentioned in the first post that I consider the biggest problem to be the future collapse of the US $... How do you think that this will happen ? :):):) You already gave the reply in your post - such a debt is not meant to be repaid. Are we staring at a new currency implementation probably ? So, what will happen to all those countries with huge US $ holdings ? :):):)

I realize that probably this blog is not the best playground for such a discussion and especially the possibilities of extension of the wars... etc, so if you want to continue this conversation undisturbed - please feel free to post me a message on my blog. I am sure that MD and the rest of the bloggers will sigh with relief. :)

Have a good day!

Regards,
Paloma
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