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Блог Михаила Прохорова
Когда подорожают деньги? 
18th-Nov-2008 12:13 pm
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Здравствуйте,

Пару недель назад я изложил свою точку зрения на происходящие экономические процессы и попросил вас высказывать свое мнение по поводу перспективного соотношения стоимости активов и денег. Читал с интересом. Сегодня, как и обещал, даю мою позицию по этому вопросу. Вот она:

Не могу, конечно, сказать, что уверен на 100%, требуется еще время на анализ общей ситуации. Тем не менее, определенная логика ответа у меня уже есть. Для того, чтобы попытаться понять, что будет с деньгами по отношению к активам, необходимо иметь ввиду следующие факторы (убывание по мере снижения важности):

1. скорость обращения денег в мире;
2. склонность населения к тезаврации и переход на оплату наличными из-за недоверия к банковским расчетам;
3. новая система оценки стоимости (ценности) активов;
4. достижение уровня "дна" (размер заплаченной цены за это "дно") и динамика роста/снижения ВВП;
5. жесткость регулирования обращения инструментов виртуального мира.

Мой предварительный вывод заключается в том, что выделенные огромные средства уйдут в первую очередь на «зализывание» ран от понесенных убытков всей экономикой, что уже приводит к психологическому желанию «замедлить» скорость обращения денег и их производных, сделать их движение более видимым и контролируемым. В этом случае я не вижу больших проблем с регулированием уровня инфляции. Как только «новая» система оценки стоимости активов по отношению к деньгам достигнет «точки равновесия» (или точки достижения "дна"), начнется эпоха «дорогих» денег, относительное доминирование «реальной» экономики.

Еще раз хочу подчеркнуть, что это очень предварительный вывод, на который могут повлиять действия (бездействие) мировых властей в период удач или неудач по преодолению мировой эпидемии недоверия в глобальном мире. Нельзя исключать и обратного сценария.
Если что-то будет критично изменяться, то будем обмениваться мнениями и анализировать.

Всем удачи.
Comments 
22nd-Nov-2008 09:45 am (UTC) - Re: DEMOCRACY
Anonymous
... DEMOCRACY works very well if it is done like in SWITZERLAND !

Virtual "bisous" and have a nice day !
22nd-Nov-2008 11:04 pm (UTC) - Re: CRAZY
Anonymous
Yes, I agree, the "direct democracy" in Switzerland is tempting. Unfortunately other European elites try to prevent any development of closer democratic participation in many EU countries. :-( One has indeed to be gratefull that the population of Ireland and the Netherlands rejected and brought down the contract of Lissabon ;-D

Have you heard that some people call Switzerland a "kleptocracy"? Maybe the financial crisis will initiate some changes although I fear I am simply too idealistic. I have heard that the investment bankers of the UBS do receive their boni despite their huge losses.
Can't I receive a bonus for investment banking? I mean I did not make any losses! I did not do any investment banking either, but let's not be so picky ;-D


Thanks for the bisous ;-) *blushing*



Have a nice weekend!!

23rd-Nov-2008 06:18 pm (UTC) - Re: DEMOCRACY
Anonymous
Hello again,

You say SWITZERLAND'S DEMOCRACY IS ONLY TEMPTING ???!!
I guess, that most of the citizens around the world would like to have such a RESPECTFUL system where 4 official languages/cultures are collaborating within the Government!

Referring the EU, Norway has also (twice) rejected the treaties to the EU and the countries you mentioned having made an rejection to the Lissabon treaty will certainly have valuable reasons (unfortunately, I don't live in these countries and couldn't make any judgement to say if it is good or bad!)

The term you are using for SWITZERLAND can only come from a US citizen who doesn't know the country but believes in the manipulable MASS-MEDIAS within the States.:) There are other issues where this small country has been directly attacked by the huge US !! I guess, this small country is just TOO PERFECT for them!:)

And regarding the UBS, they DIRECTION and BOARD OF DIRECTORS REJECTED their BONUS and this is really something gorgeous in respect to the "idealistic" over huge losses banking behaviour of US banks!!:) Probably, the foreign banks/governments should attack the US government/banks and make an overall "class action" against them referring the nowadays financial crises, no? (Now, and not only in XX years):)

Feel free to ask your banks if they can give you a bonus/money for FREE !! (it is nearer and you will certainly have more chances to get it):)

Good luck and take care!
24th-Nov-2008 06:19 pm (UTC) - CRAZY II.
Anonymous
Hello,

I will not say where I am from because it doesn't matter ;-) and no, I would not mind if the US would put some pressure on Switzerland which basically feeds on other countries by providing foreign tax frauders with schemes.

Switzerland: there are reasons why this country is on every list of tax heavens like the Caymans or the Canal Islands. Swiss bankers do not have any competetive "innovative" products which would generate much more money than other banks except that Switzerland is still refusing to share data relevant for taxation with other countries.

As for boni:
I wrote about the investment bankers from the UBS and they get their boni as every year. I know they do and I am not guessing.

A profit rate of any investment of more than _average_ 10%-12% is simply unrealistic and pure greed and/or exploitation.


Yes I would like to have more possibilities of direct participation in political decisions. Unfortunately our politicians will not grant that. Instead they are spending OUR (also MY) money on saving finance gamblers although it is not yet clear whether the money will ever be paid back nor whether some of the bail outs are economic at all. Unprofitable enterprises shall go bancrupt <- that is what keeps the system working well.
Some people in my country have already started to demand their share of the bail out money from the federal minister of finance ( ...money / population = MY money) ;-)))) Why should private bancruptees not be saved? ;-)


Have a nice week!


25th-Nov-2008 11:14 am (UTC) - Re: DEMOCRACY
Anonymous
DELAWARE !!! What do you think about this place? It's an official "offshore" or an intermediate "fiscal paradise" place where I don't know how many money transfers are handled by US investors, banks, companies, etc. etc. ("special purpose vehicles" ??!!…. reminds me the Enron Case with 3'000 spv… and forthcoming the SOX Act …? .… Are there any positive results since this act? I don't think so because we wouldn't have such as catastrophic situation).
And if you want the complete list of such places, you can go on the OECD website and you will find more than 35 "offshore" places all over the world.

As I consider you as a "superficial writer or journalist" without having any serious knowledge neither in accounting nor in finances and even less in economics and laws, I recommend you to read more about this fiscal paradise issue around the world and the utmost "readings" referred to the United States of America or to work in these fields!

I recommend you also to consider the bank secrecy in London because it is more difficult to obtain any information of anyone than on the Jersey Islands not to mention Switzerland and in some terms, they are completely right (even if I have a personal heartbreaking concern about it!)

SWITZERLAND has the RIGHT TO HOLD the BANK SECRECY because it is a RIGHT of a PERSON and the GUARANTEE for DEMOCRACY!

SWITZERLAND (= CH) is known for the strength, the seriousness, and one of the best professional executions of any labour ship/project. (Singapore took CH decades ago as an example and have nowadays a very healthy status). Having an extreme serious and well-elaborated administrative system in CH, it allows many international companies to make business worldwide without long-lasting and complex bureaucracy.

You talked about "Innovative products"? Get in contact with some real Swiss Bankers and "Financiers" and you will get "blushed" until the end of your life! But of course, if you live within the States, you will not have the chance to obtain such an information anymore, unless … !

I recommend you also to go on the UBS website and you can find "the written form" that the DIRECTION AND BOARD OF DIRECTORS REJECTED THEIR BONUS.(Because this small country is an open minded multicultural country you will even find the written text in "English" and please, review your writings and the bonus distribution for 2008 and 2009; there might be something for investment bankers in 2008 but not for the DIRECTION and the BOARD of DIRECTORS).

Have a nice "reading" and take care.

P.S. I you want to save taxes, ask Warren Buffet, because he officially declared that he personally pays less taxes than his receptionist/secretary! Good luck!
25th-Nov-2008 07:35 pm (UTC) - shall I cry now?
Anonymous
Yawn.

Switzerland is a tax haven preying on that money that should be spent on other countries and populations. Just because there are other tax havens that does not excuse Switzerland. Just because there are other thieves your stealing is in no way excused.

As for all your jibberish about the quality of swiss finance et cetera it is indeed remarkable that you do neither give any examples nor go into any details ;-) ...

Many nations which have been democratic now for quite a while are quite rotten indeed. (Postdemocrazy, Crouch)

As for Switzerland: it does not have the right to prey on others even if you call it bank secrecy or right of person or democracy or whatever. A democracy can survive only when all its participants support it and that includes paying taxes. So if Switzerland helps some individuals to commit tax fraud in their home countries that is aiding and abetting which is a crime. Just wait till somebody charges Switzerland for that.

Switzerland wants money?

Get a job.




26th-Nov-2008 09:52 am (UTC) - Re: DEMOCRACY = SWITZERLAND
Anonymous
Hi there,

... Switzerland "doesn't prey on others" or did you read something in the medias or hear in your surroundings? I couldn't read and hear anything on that purpose until now because they are simply TOO HUMBLE and professionally TOO BUSY to do so ! Yes, there is not simply a "box office" on an island where a lot of international bankers and accountants/trustees are taking advantage!

And then, would you give an example of any investment incentives (investment financial planning or a concrete business plan) on a blog ???!!! I hope you wiser than that!

For what precisely should "CH being charged for" and "CH wants money" ... of whom even more precisely ???!!!

Don't worry, I keep myself busy as good as I CAN !

Have a nice day and above all take care of yourself!
29th-Nov-2008 11:23 pm (UTC) - future of Switzerland and its obligations
Anonymous
Tax havens:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=952721

I suggest that Switzerland should grant citizenship to all those marvellously honest law-abiding individuals who keep altogether 1 Mio € on accounts in Swiss bank(s) ;-). Those marvellous individuals might need a bolt whole in future and therefore would probably really appreciate such a citizenship guarantee ;-) Might make Switzerland even more attractive as a banking capital :)


And no Switzerland on this list of Tax Information Exchange Agreements: here:
http://www.oecd.org/document/7/0,3343,en_2649_33745_38312839_1_1_1_1,00.html

Or is Switzerland so unimportant for the international banking business that there ain't no need for tax information exchange agreements with Switzerland?



Investment incentives as other business secrets are kept secret for sure. But that ain't no proof of their existence but just an assertion without substance, my dear ;-).


Regards

the cynic


1st-Dec-2008 06:48 pm (UTC) - ...
Anonymous
Dear Mikhail,

THEN PUT ANOTHER RESPONSE BECAUSE THIS ONE IS DISGUSTING TOWARDS MY COUNTRY and untrue above all!

And then this site of your fund is ONLY written in Russian. I don't want to spend hours on searching this info!

Elisabeth
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