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Блог Михаила Прохорова
Когда подорожают деньги? 
18th-Nov-2008 12:13 pm

Пару недель назад я изложил свою точку зрения на происходящие экономические процессы и попросил вас высказывать свое мнение по поводу перспективного соотношения стоимости активов и денег. Читал с интересом. Сегодня, как и обещал, даю мою позицию по этому вопросу. Вот она:

Не могу, конечно, сказать, что уверен на 100%, требуется еще время на анализ общей ситуации. Тем не менее, определенная логика ответа у меня уже есть. Для того, чтобы попытаться понять, что будет с деньгами по отношению к активам, необходимо иметь ввиду следующие факторы (убывание по мере снижения важности):

1. скорость обращения денег в мире;
2. склонность населения к тезаврации и переход на оплату наличными из-за недоверия к банковским расчетам;
3. новая система оценки стоимости (ценности) активов;
4. достижение уровня "дна" (размер заплаченной цены за это "дно") и динамика роста/снижения ВВП;
5. жесткость регулирования обращения инструментов виртуального мира.

Мой предварительный вывод заключается в том, что выделенные огромные средства уйдут в первую очередь на «зализывание» ран от понесенных убытков всей экономикой, что уже приводит к психологическому желанию «замедлить» скорость обращения денег и их производных, сделать их движение более видимым и контролируемым. В этом случае я не вижу больших проблем с регулированием уровня инфляции. Как только «новая» система оценки стоимости активов по отношению к деньгам достигнет «точки равновесия» (или точки достижения "дна"), начнется эпоха «дорогих» денег, относительное доминирование «реальной» экономики.

Еще раз хочу подчеркнуть, что это очень предварительный вывод, на который могут повлиять действия (бездействие) мировых властей в период удач или неудач по преодолению мировой эпидемии недоверия в глобальном мире. Нельзя исключать и обратного сценария.
Если что-то будет критично изменяться, то будем обмениваться мнениями и анализировать.

Всем удачи.
25th-Nov-2008 11:14 am (UTC) - Re: DEMOCRACY
DELAWARE !!! What do you think about this place? It's an official "offshore" or an intermediate "fiscal paradise" place where I don't know how many money transfers are handled by US investors, banks, companies, etc. etc. ("special purpose vehicles" ??!!…. reminds me the Enron Case with 3'000 spv… and forthcoming the SOX Act …? .… Are there any positive results since this act? I don't think so because we wouldn't have such as catastrophic situation).
And if you want the complete list of such places, you can go on the OECD website and you will find more than 35 "offshore" places all over the world.

As I consider you as a "superficial writer or journalist" without having any serious knowledge neither in accounting nor in finances and even less in economics and laws, I recommend you to read more about this fiscal paradise issue around the world and the utmost "readings" referred to the United States of America or to work in these fields!

I recommend you also to consider the bank secrecy in London because it is more difficult to obtain any information of anyone than on the Jersey Islands not to mention Switzerland and in some terms, they are completely right (even if I have a personal heartbreaking concern about it!)


SWITZERLAND (= CH) is known for the strength, the seriousness, and one of the best professional executions of any labour ship/project. (Singapore took CH decades ago as an example and have nowadays a very healthy status). Having an extreme serious and well-elaborated administrative system in CH, it allows many international companies to make business worldwide without long-lasting and complex bureaucracy.

You talked about "Innovative products"? Get in contact with some real Swiss Bankers and "Financiers" and you will get "blushed" until the end of your life! But of course, if you live within the States, you will not have the chance to obtain such an information anymore, unless … !

I recommend you also to go on the UBS website and you can find "the written form" that the DIRECTION AND BOARD OF DIRECTORS REJECTED THEIR BONUS.(Because this small country is an open minded multicultural country you will even find the written text in "English" and please, review your writings and the bonus distribution for 2008 and 2009; there might be something for investment bankers in 2008 but not for the DIRECTION and the BOARD of DIRECTORS).

Have a nice "reading" and take care.

P.S. I you want to save taxes, ask Warren Buffet, because he officially declared that he personally pays less taxes than his receptionist/secretary! Good luck!
25th-Nov-2008 07:35 pm (UTC) - shall I cry now?

Switzerland is a tax haven preying on that money that should be spent on other countries and populations. Just because there are other tax havens that does not excuse Switzerland. Just because there are other thieves your stealing is in no way excused.

As for all your jibberish about the quality of swiss finance et cetera it is indeed remarkable that you do neither give any examples nor go into any details ;-) ...

Many nations which have been democratic now for quite a while are quite rotten indeed. (Postdemocrazy, Crouch)

As for Switzerland: it does not have the right to prey on others even if you call it bank secrecy or right of person or democracy or whatever. A democracy can survive only when all its participants support it and that includes paying taxes. So if Switzerland helps some individuals to commit tax fraud in their home countries that is aiding and abetting which is a crime. Just wait till somebody charges Switzerland for that.

Switzerland wants money?

Get a job.

26th-Nov-2008 09:52 am (UTC) - Re: DEMOCRACY = SWITZERLAND
Hi there,

... Switzerland "doesn't prey on others" or did you read something in the medias or hear in your surroundings? I couldn't read and hear anything on that purpose until now because they are simply TOO HUMBLE and professionally TOO BUSY to do so ! Yes, there is not simply a "box office" on an island where a lot of international bankers and accountants/trustees are taking advantage!

And then, would you give an example of any investment incentives (investment financial planning or a concrete business plan) on a blog ???!!! I hope you wiser than that!

For what precisely should "CH being charged for" and "CH wants money" ... of whom even more precisely ???!!!

Don't worry, I keep myself busy as good as I CAN !

Have a nice day and above all take care of yourself!
29th-Nov-2008 11:23 pm (UTC) - future of Switzerland and its obligations
Tax havens:

I suggest that Switzerland should grant citizenship to all those marvellously honest law-abiding individuals who keep altogether 1 Mio € on accounts in Swiss bank(s) ;-). Those marvellous individuals might need a bolt whole in future and therefore would probably really appreciate such a citizenship guarantee ;-) Might make Switzerland even more attractive as a banking capital :)

And no Switzerland on this list of Tax Information Exchange Agreements: here:

Or is Switzerland so unimportant for the international banking business that there ain't no need for tax information exchange agreements with Switzerland?

Investment incentives as other business secrets are kept secret for sure. But that ain't no proof of their existence but just an assertion without substance, my dear ;-).


the cynic

1st-Dec-2008 06:48 pm (UTC) - ...
Dear Mikhail,


And then this site of your fund is ONLY written in Russian. I don't want to spend hours on searching this info!

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