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Блог Михаила Прохорова
Когда подорожают деньги? 
18th-Nov-2008 12:13 pm
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Здравствуйте,

Пару недель назад я изложил свою точку зрения на происходящие экономические процессы и попросил вас высказывать свое мнение по поводу перспективного соотношения стоимости активов и денег. Читал с интересом. Сегодня, как и обещал, даю мою позицию по этому вопросу. Вот она:

Не могу, конечно, сказать, что уверен на 100%, требуется еще время на анализ общей ситуации. Тем не менее, определенная логика ответа у меня уже есть. Для того, чтобы попытаться понять, что будет с деньгами по отношению к активам, необходимо иметь ввиду следующие факторы (убывание по мере снижения важности):

1. скорость обращения денег в мире;
2. склонность населения к тезаврации и переход на оплату наличными из-за недоверия к банковским расчетам;
3. новая система оценки стоимости (ценности) активов;
4. достижение уровня "дна" (размер заплаченной цены за это "дно") и динамика роста/снижения ВВП;
5. жесткость регулирования обращения инструментов виртуального мира.

Мой предварительный вывод заключается в том, что выделенные огромные средства уйдут в первую очередь на «зализывание» ран от понесенных убытков всей экономикой, что уже приводит к психологическому желанию «замедлить» скорость обращения денег и их производных, сделать их движение более видимым и контролируемым. В этом случае я не вижу больших проблем с регулированием уровня инфляции. Как только «новая» система оценки стоимости активов по отношению к деньгам достигнет «точки равновесия» (или точки достижения "дна"), начнется эпоха «дорогих» денег, относительное доминирование «реальной» экономики.

Еще раз хочу подчеркнуть, что это очень предварительный вывод, на который могут повлиять действия (бездействие) мировых властей в период удач или неудач по преодолению мировой эпидемии недоверия в глобальном мире. Нельзя исключать и обратного сценария.
Если что-то будет критично изменяться, то будем обмениваться мнениями и анализировать.

Всем удачи.
Comments 
30th-Nov-2008 07:06 am (UTC) - Re: it's all greed of ... ? part 2
Yeah, it's easy to blame a Republican president for the cities' problems (and yeah, he shared PART but not ALL of the blame) but the majority of the blame should go to the Democratic officials running your city! Yes, I am cynical of both parties, but mostly dems because in a "democratic" society you end up with mostly "have-nots" (sad but true) whereas in a "republic" (or capitalistic) society, you end up as EITHER a "have" or a "have-not"-your choice according to your constitutional rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. But with all due respect for our newly elected president, I am hoping for all our sakes that he carries out what he says he will and that we Americans will end up being mostly "haves" instead of "have-nots" as a result of his "rescue" plans. I've mentioned before on the blog that FDR is the only Democratic president I respect, along with his wife (former fist lady Eleanor). It's a pity that no other Dem nor his wife has followed their examples yet. And I'll keep my cynicism until I see this-especially since it's hard to picture the new first lady as well as the former first lady (now being slapped with the job of our new Secretary of State) volunteering at a soup kitchen or visiting our troops stationed in various parts of the world. And it's especially hard not to be cynical about our new president and our new first lady especially after said new first lady flooded the press (back in the spring) with reports about how her husband burps, farts, and thinks of "pet names" for her and their kids! You tell me, is this a fitting example of a first lady?? I personally think not because there are many family issues which should be kept PRIVATE-especially these! But again I'll do my best to keep an open mind inspite of my cynicism.
Third, my comment was not posted with the thought of how the middle class should be housed by the government because the middle class can still afford to house itself whether in homes or apartments. I was not only answering my friend's thoughts about wasteful spending of city budgets by city officials, but I was also thinking more about the families of the lower middle class and the poverty class-issues like how would they use their $36,600/yr to send their 1-3 kids to college without federal funds? Or, how would a single person making $36,600/yr who wanted to make a career change afford schooling without some kind of federal grant/funding?? I commend you for thin king that $36,600/yr is a lot of money but I must burst your bubble by saying that in reality, it really is not that much money in many places in America-ESPECIALLY if you have children!
I thank my lucky stars that I am neither married nor have kids yet-in fact if I were to write up a family budget right before I married and started a family, I would do it assuming that I would start off having twins instead of just one baby because my chances for having twins are very strong-even then, a budget plan is just a PLAN. And we all know that a great deal of the time the best of "plans" get off-track. Curiously, I think you should write a book as to how you and a family could live on $36,600/yr since you think it's a "lot" of $! But of course, that would require you having to use your real name and we can't have that, can we?? This is it for me right now. Take care of yourself and enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Regards,
Heather





Edited at 2008-11-30 07:21 am (UTC)
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